Photo: Nizzan Cohen / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc has moved ahead in the official count of Israel’s general election, overturning the picture painted by most exit polls on Tuesday night. With 66.2% of ballot boxes counted by Wednesday morning, partial results from the Central Elections Committee gave Netanyahu’s camp 56 seats, the opposition alliance led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot 48, and Arab-led parties 16. A majority in the 120-member Knesset needs 61.
How the count has shifted
When polls closed at 10pm on Tuesday, three of the five television exit polls showed the anti-Netanyahu bloc narrowly ahead. Revised projections overnight had the two camps roughly level at around 51 seats each. The official tally then tilted further towards the government side: at about 54% of boxes counted, the Netanyahu bloc stood at 55 seats against the opposition’s 50, and by 66% the gap had widened to eight.
Partial figures at around the 60% mark put Likud on 28 seats, well clear of Eisenkot’s Yashar party on 21. They were followed by the Joint List with 12, Naftali Bennett’s alliance with 11, and the Democrats, United Torah Judaism and Yisrael Beytenu with eight each. Shas and Otzma Yehudit had seven each, Religious Zionism six and Ra’am four. Several smaller lists, including the Reservists, were below the 3.25% threshold needed to enter parliament.
Election officials have cautioned that the numbers will keep moving. Ballots cast in double envelopes, including those of soldiers, are counted last, and Israel’s proportional system means a fraction of a percentage point can swing a seat. Netanyahu himself told supporters that the “true results” would take one or two days.
Rival claims on election night
Speaking at Likud’s headquarters in Jerusalem in the early hours, Netanyahu called for a “strong government of the right” built on Likud, far-right factions and religious parties, and said it could not depend on Arab parties. Eisenkot, addressing supporters in Tel Aviv earlier, said voters had chosen change and that Netanyahu should have announced his retirement. Former prime minister Yair Lapid described the exit polls as a “crushing defeat” for the government bloc.
Why it matters
The vote, held with a turnout of 77.7%, the highest since 1999, was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption on charges he denies and has faced blame at home over the October 7, 2023 attack. A stalemate could still favour him: if no one can form a coalition, he stays on as caretaker prime minister, and Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 in similar circumstances.
The record showing by Arab-led parties complicates the arithmetic further. Netanyahu has ruled out a government backed by them, and Eisenkot has also kept his distance, leaving analysts to discuss options such as a unity government or a minority government.
What happens next
Counting will continue through the week, with the final official results expected to be formalised on November 4. President Isaac Herzog will then consult party leaders and invite the candidate he judges most likely to assemble a majority, opening what could be weeks of coalition bargaining.
