Photo: eclicks_by_bunny / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
The weather system building over the Bay of Bengal is now expected to strike the Andhra Pradesh coast as a very severe cyclonic storm, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) saying on Sunday, October 25, that it will cross the coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, including Yanam, by the forenoon of October 28. Sustained winds of 115 to 125 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph, are forecast at landfall, and the state has begun planning to move people out of vulnerable coastal areas.
How the storm is expected to grow
At 5.30 am on Sunday, the system was a depression over the east-central Bay of Bengal, roughly 880 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 980 km from Kakinada, 1,080 km from Machilipatnam and 1,150 km from Bapatla, according to the IMD. It was moving slowly and is expected to first drift southwards and deepen before turning west-northwest.
The weather office expects it to become a cyclonic storm by Monday morning, a severe cyclonic storm by the morning of October 27, and a very severe cyclonic storm as it nears the coast. That is a step up from earlier forecasts, which spoke only of a cyclone heading for north Andhra and south Odisha.
Evacuations and rescue teams
Prakhar Jain, managing director of the Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority, said people living in low-lying areas and in kutcha houses across the coastal belt from Bapatla to Vizianagaram would be shifted to relief shelters. He listed Bapatla, Krishna, West Godavari, Dr. B.R. Ambedkar Konaseema, Kakinada, Anakapalli, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam as the districts likely to be affected, while Tirupati and Nellore are not expected to see much impact. He added that the picture would become clearer once the cyclone forms on Monday.
The state has 12 battalions of the State Disaster Response Force and seven of the National Disaster Response Force in place, and has asked the Centre for three more NDRF battalions. Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu reviewed preparations on Sunday and told officials to stop fishermen from going to sea, warn residents of low-lying areas and open toll-free helplines. Fishermen along the coast have been advised to stay ashore until October 29.
Rain warnings across the south and east
Most of the rain in Andhra Pradesh is expected from October 27, with only light showers likely until then. The IMD has issued a red alert for Krishna and Bapatla on October 27, and for a dozen districts including Visakhapatnam, Alluri Sitharama Raju, Anakapalli, Kakinada, Konaseema, East and West Godavari, Eluru, NTR, Krishna, Guntur and Bapatla on October 28, warning of isolated extremely heavy rainfall.
Further south, No. 1 cyclone warning signals have been hoisted at nine ports in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, including Chennai, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore, Karaikal, Pamban and Thoothukudi. Puducherry has had continuous rain since Saturday night, leaving several areas waterlogged. In Odisha, the state machinery has been put on alert, and President Droupadi Murmu’s two-day visit to the state from October 28 has been postponed because of the forecast.
What happens next
The next 24 hours are key: once the depression turns into a cyclone on Monday, the IMD is expected to give a sharper picture of where it will cross the coast, and state officials say the list of affected areas will become clearer then. Heavy rain is also likely to spread into Odisha, and Jharkhand expects rain on October 28 and 29 under the system’s influence.
