Photo: GOES imagery: CSU/CIRA & NOAA / Wikimedia Commons, public domain
Hurricane Simon was crawling towards Mexico’s west-central Pacific coast on Saturday as a powerful Category 4 storm, with maximum sustained winds near 240 km/h. In its afternoon advisory, issued at about 2:30 am IST on Sunday, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) placed the eye roughly 165 km south-southwest of the port city of Manzanillo, moving north at only about 7 km/h.
Where and when it may hit
The NHC said Simon is expected to be near or just inland of the coast on Sunday before pushing further inland on Monday. A hurricane warning covers the coastline from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, along with the Islas Marías, while a tropical storm watch extends east of Punta San Telmo towards Lázaro Cárdenas. Several hurricane models now show landfall in Jalisco within the next one to one-and-a-half days.
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that flew into the storm measured a minimum central pressure of 932 millibars. Hurricane-force winds extend up to about 35 km from the centre, and tropical-storm-force winds reach out to around 150 km.
Rain, surge and mudslide risk
Forecasters warned of catastrophic winds and a life-threatening storm surge with large, destructive waves near and to the east of where the centre comes ashore. Rainfall of 25 to 50 cm is expected over parts of southwestern Mexico, with isolated totals of up to about 76 cm possible in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco through Sunday.
This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
US National Hurricane Center
Swells from the storm are also expected to cause dangerous surf and rip currents along the coast for the next few days.
How Mexico is preparing
Authorities in Jalisco suspended classes in 22 coastal municipalities and began moving people out of high-risk areas. Officials urged hotels and other tourism businesses in Puerto Vallarta, one of the country’s best-known beach resorts, to make sure staff and visitors could reach shelters or safe places. Shops in the resort boarded up windows and stacked sandbags at their doors, according to international news agency reports. Manzanillo, which lies inside the warning zone, is Mexico’s largest port on the Pacific.
What happens next
The intensity forecast remains uncertain. Reconnaissance crews found two concentric eyewalls, a sign that the storm may go through an eyewall replacement cycle and fluctuate in strength overnight. The NHC expects the region’s high mountains to begin weakening Simon even before landfall, with rapid weakening once its core moves fully onshore, and the storm is forecast to dissipate over Mexico within about two and a half days. Forecasters cautioned, however, that if Simon stays offshore longer, as some models suggest, it could remain much stronger than predicted.
Simon is not the only system threatening Mexico this weekend. Tropical Storm Rachel was expected to come ashore in northern Baja California on Saturday night, with tropical storm warnings along parts of the peninsula and a watch for the southern California coast near San Diego.
