A weather system that formed over the Bay of Bengal early on Friday is expected to grow into a cyclonic storm by Monday morning and head for the north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts, with landfall likely in the early hours of October 28, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. Both states have begun preparing, and the IMD has issued red warnings for extremely heavy rain in several Andhra districts.
How the system is expected to develop
According to the IMD, a low-pressure area took shape over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal at 5.30 a.m. on October 23. It is likely to become a depression on Saturday, a deep depression on Sunday and a cyclonic storm by Monday morning, and to keep strengthening as it moves west-northwest towards the coast.
K. Naga Ratna, who heads the Amaravati Meteorological Centre, said the storm was likely to cross the coast early on October 28 and then move away towards Odisha the next day. She said it would be “at least a severe cyclonic storm”, adding that some models point to a very severe cyclonic storm with winds of up to 145 kmph and a storm surge of 1 to 2 metres. The IMD’s sea warning for October 27 off the north Andhra coast puts wind speeds at 120 to 165 kmph, gusting to 185 kmph.
The exact landfall point is still unclear. Ms. Naga Ratna said the system could cross anywhere between West Godavari and Srikakulam districts, with some models favouring Visakhapatnam and others Kakinada and Konaseema. Odisha’s Revenue and Disaster Management Minister Suresh Pujari said models showed it could come ashore between Gopalpur in Odisha and Kakinada, before weakening into a depression and moving through interior Odisha towards Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh.
Rain warnings across the east coast
In Andhra Pradesh, red warnings cover Visakhapatnam and Anakapalli districts on October 27, and Alluri Sitharama Raju, Anakapalli, Kakinada, East Godavari, Konaseema and West Godavari on October 28. Srikakulam, Parvathipuram-Manyam, Vizianagaram, Eluru and Krishna are on orange alert on both days. In Odisha, Mr. Pujari said Puri, Ganjam and Gajapati had been placed under a red alert for heavy rain by October 27, with heavy to very heavy rain likely in several districts from October 26.
Heavy rain is also forecast for coastal West Bengal and parts of Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh on October 28 and 29. The IMD has warned of waterlogging, flooded underpasses, traffic disruption and damage to standing crops in coastal areas.
States step up preparations
The Odisha government has cancelled leave for all its officials and asked staff who had gone home for Dasara to return. Mr. Pujari said the National Disaster Response Force and the Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force were on standby, and people would be evacuated depending on the storm’s strength. In Andhra Pradesh, Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu directed officials to put cyclone preparedness measures in place.
Fishermen at sea have been told to return to the coast by Saturday morning and not to venture out along the Andhra and Odisha coasts on October 27 and 28. The Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority has asked people and farmers to take precautions and shared helpline numbers 112, 1070 and 18004250101.
Why it matters and what comes next
The forecast comes almost exactly a year after Cyclone Montha crossed the Andhra coast near Kakinada on October 28, 2025 as a severe cyclonic storm. The coast between Srikakulam and the Godavari delta is densely populated and heavily farmed, so the system’s track and strength over the weekend will decide how wide evacuations need to be. The IMD’s next update is due at 2.30 p.m. on Saturday.
